One thing that wasn't mentioned in the article was about the reasoning behind Putin's customs union. Putin is very pro-Soviet Union. He wants to make customs union to make it resemble Soviet Union with Russia as the leader country and others (such as Belarus), former Soviet Union members as satellite countries. He also sees it, as mentioned in the article, as a counterweight to EU, which he views as a threat. So his personal interest in Ukraine goes beyond "care for Russians living in Ukraine". He basically wants to rebuild Soviet Union, and Ukraine is a key component.
Putin's longing for USSR is overrated. I don't believe he gives a rat's ass about USSR.
Customs Union is a block on countries that have deeply integrated economies, common language (unofficially it is Russian) and common background. CU is just as natural and logical as, for example, European Coal and Steel Community formed after 2nd World War. Whether CU will evolve into political union, like EU is trying to do, is unknown. Probably not. So there is no reason to freak out and fantasize about menace of USSR2.
> Putin's longing for USSR is overrated. I don't believe he gives a rat's ass about USSR.
I believe he gives quite a rat's ass about USSR. Remember that Putin saw USSR fall under his own eyes. He not only blames Gorbachev for the destruction for USSR, but basically considers him a traitor for things like not approving violence against occupied states during independence uprisings. Besides the sentiments for USSR, he also is aware that his political power is going to end in some, time, so he wants to be remembered for something big. And he believes that creating something that resembles USSR is that thing. That's why he cares so much about customs union and is willing to basically bribe other countries to join it despite lacking money for Russia itself. That's what happened with Armenia - he "bribed" the country by offering big loan and lower gas prices before it joined EU economic treaty, like Georgia, Moldova did. That's why he offered money for Ukraine in exchange not even for customs union, but just not signing EU economic treaty, which was already prepared and ratified by president of Ukraine.
Putin's main concern after he quits politics is his personal safety, not rebuilding USSR. Nobody in Russia wants back into USSR, an attempt at rebuilding would be futile and suicidal.
As for "bribing" the countries to join CU - that is the whole point of CU, which implies deeper integration, lower trade barriers, lower prices for gas etc. If you don't want to be "bribed", it is simple - don't take the money (and don't blame corrupt politicians, as if there is any other kind). We may question the motives - some countries are natural fit for CU, like Belarus or, potentially, Ukraine. Some, like Armenia come cheap and are more for the show to create an image of successful regional integration. EU does the same thing - Greece is going to be the major headache for years to come, the role of countries like Bulgaria and Romania in EU is entirely unclear (does EU "bribe" them by transferring money to their budgets?). While having core European countries in a union makes perfect sense.
I hope you realize that Ukraine is never going to be an EU member, which makes the whole argument surreal.
The thing is, from economic point of view, Putin makes mistake to pay so much money just for them to participate in the union. And what Putin is known for is careful, very calculated political moves, certainly not charity. So he expects something more from it later.
Besides, saying that Ukraine will never be EU member just exposes your clear bias. Everyone knows it won't join EU for a long time, but if they elect people that work towards it (which is unlikely knowing how chaotic the opposition is) it would be a matter of time till it joins EU.
He expects to build a regional structure based on economics rather then politics in which Russia will play the main role. Portraying it as the second coming of USSR is plain wrong. It is also wrong to assume that there are plans to turn this union into political one - Russia doesn't need the headache of managing Ukrainian, Kazakh or any other nation's internal affairs. To achieve that Russia is willing to spend a few bln here and there to push them in the direction of CU. Again, EU did the same thing with Eastern Europe by accepting them on a super fast track.
I don't have bias, I am trying to see things as they are without cliches. EU is not likely to survive in its current form. One of the main issues with EU is that some countries made it there for political reasons, for which EU is beginning to pay dearly and has no appetite for Ukraine whatsoever. Putin may be making same mistake with say Armenia, but again he is just a bureaucrat like his European colleagues.
I still think Putin is not telling the whole story about his CU yet, and I think EU is in quite good shape. Only some financial problems in southern countries (Portugal, Spain and Greece) and migration problems in UK and maybe to some extent Germany. So it will most likely not only survive, but thrive further.
