Hard question. A rational decision would lead to high salary w/o equity:
- Probability that startup fails > 95%
- You will get usually about 0,5-2% vested over 3 to 4 years with a cliff, you'd get more if you joined before a funding and took the entire risk and had no salary for some time
=> So working at least 3yrs for max 2% (rather 1%) with an exit probability of less than 5% yields too high opportunity costs; as a talented developer you could miss many other opportunities
- Probability that startup fails > 95%
- You will get usually about 0,5-2% vested over 3 to 4 years with a cliff, you'd get more if you joined before a funding and took the entire risk and had no salary for some time
=> So working at least 3yrs for max 2% (rather 1%) with an exit probability of less than 5% yields too high opportunity costs; as a talented developer you could miss many other opportunities