I don't think I ever implied that it always breeds success.
I didn't even imply that effort directed in the opposite way breeds failure. There are no doubt (rare) examples of people with a strong self-sacrificing mindset becoming successful despite those - just no one I know or have observed personally... Most lottery winners presumably fall into this category.
Chance can work both ways, but if you rely only on chance, the chance itself says you probably won't "succeed" for any given definition of success. Success is rare. Even if you fight tooth and nail you may not succeed, but you can perhaps change a 0.001% probability into a 10% probability, or a 0.01% probability into a 90% probability. That's worth fighting for.
Simple counter-example of your "chance rules all" idea: if your goal is to become a famous writer, there's nothing you can do to make success certain - but if you never write anything, you can guarantee failure.
> if your goal is to become a famous writer, there's nothing you can do to make success certain - but if you never write anything, you can guarantee failure.
I know you were using that as a counter-example but this immediately came to mind (from a successful writer)
> It has never been easy for me to understand why people work so hard to create something beautiful, but then refuse to share it with anyone, for fear of criticism. Wasn’t that the point of the creation – to communicate something to the world? So PUT IT OUT THERE. Send your work off to editors and agents as much as possible, show it to your neighbors, plaster it on the walls of the bus stops – just don’t sit on your work and suffocate it. At least try. And when the powers-that-be send you back your manuscript (and they will), take a deep breath and try again. I often hear people say, “I’m not good enough yet to be published.” That’s quite possible. Probable, even. All I’m saying is: Let someone else decide that. Magazines, editors, agents – they all employ young people making $22,000 a year whose job it is to read through piles of manuscripts and send you back letters telling you that you aren’t good enough yet: LET THEM DO IT. Don’t pre-reject yourself. That’s their job, not yours. Your job is only to write your heart out, and let destiny take care of the rest.
Sailing provides an apt metaphor for your point, I believe. The wind is more-or-less random, and yet if you choose a destination you will eventually get there (assuming that you know how to sail and your gear holds out, of course).
I didn't even imply that effort directed in the opposite way breeds failure. There are no doubt (rare) examples of people with a strong self-sacrificing mindset becoming successful despite those - just no one I know or have observed personally... Most lottery winners presumably fall into this category.
Chance can work both ways, but if you rely only on chance, the chance itself says you probably won't "succeed" for any given definition of success. Success is rare. Even if you fight tooth and nail you may not succeed, but you can perhaps change a 0.001% probability into a 10% probability, or a 0.01% probability into a 90% probability. That's worth fighting for.
Simple counter-example of your "chance rules all" idea: if your goal is to become a famous writer, there's nothing you can do to make success certain - but if you never write anything, you can guarantee failure.