I don't think MySpace vs Facebook is really a real comparison. Facebook has reached a level of ubiquity that MySpace could never have dreamed of.
That little white F in a blue square is a global symbol and it won't be undone in a few bouts of bad PR.
I think we, the tech literate, forget just how other people interact with tech. I need only to look at my parents interacting with Facebook to see how they're still so addicted to it (my aunt still is addicted to candy crush ffs).
Don't forget all the social lock in Facebook has on you: a decade's worth of photos and all the friends you picked up along the way.
Sure, people are unplugging, but I personally think they've got critical mass.
Myspace also reached a level of ubiquity that prior social media (think Six Degrees, ICQ, Friendster, AIM, etc.) could only dream of.
Its downfall also illustrates how little it mattered that they were then hosting their users' digital life. A new generation rose using a new social medium, and this lack of new users eventually sucked the life out of it.
That, incidentally, is probably why Facebook paid so much for WhatsApp.
You're entitled to your opinion. But I don't think you're even comparing apples to apples here. Facebook claims 2.2 billion monthly active users. Sure, that is a flattering and inflated number, but at face value that is about 28% of the world's population.
That is "the world's most recognized word is Coke/Apple" levels of mindshare. That simply doesn't go away overnight. People no longer drink 24 bottles of Coke a day[0] but Coke is still everywhere and ubiquitous.
Hence my assertion that Facebook has critical mass: the history of MySpace isn't a useful analogy for trying to stipulate what might happen to Facebook. After a certain size/ubiquity they can sidestep user exodus, if only through sheer acquisition of the replacement.
Perhaps a concession is that Facebook the product may be gone in a decade. I'll be very surprised if Facebook, Inc. is gone.
Also, kids don't like social networks where their parents hang out. This more than anything else will kill Facebook -- it'll be what old people do.
Of course, Facebook could acquire (and Messenger and Whatsapp and Instagram are powerful moats) but the core social network functionality is weaker than it appears.
That little white F in a blue square is a global symbol and it won't be undone in a few bouts of bad PR.
I think we, the tech literate, forget just how other people interact with tech. I need only to look at my parents interacting with Facebook to see how they're still so addicted to it (my aunt still is addicted to candy crush ffs).
Don't forget all the social lock in Facebook has on you: a decade's worth of photos and all the friends you picked up along the way.
Sure, people are unplugging, but I personally think they've got critical mass.