what strikes me with this migrant crisis is the number of misperceptions on both sides:
The migrants are always refered to as war refugees when really only a minority are.
The migrants seem to come with the perception that they will be welcomed with open and generous arms where the European public opinion is becoming very visibly hostile to this wave of migrants. And European countries will not have the means and the will to subsidise immigrants on this scale.
The European public opinion turned against the migrants after the Paris attack, just because some of the attackers travelled through these immigration channels, but all attackers were either French or Belgium nationals, not migrants. Same thing in Cologne where it seems all the attackers where from Marroco and Algeria, not Iraq or Syria.
What I am worried about is the combination of these factors:
1. This is only the start of the migrant crisis. Migrants stopped crossing the mediteranean sea during the winter, but spring is coming, and the Russian backed offensive in Syria will lead to more war refugees. Not only that but when Bashar will likely regain territories from Isis, we will really see many Isis fighters returning home in Europe, ...or seeking asylum from the certain death if caught by Putin/Bashar (and then what do Europeans do?). And on a longer term, the African demographic explosion means millions of africans trying to make their way to Europe every year will be the new normal. Add to that the fact that our societies will increasingly reduce our reliance on oil, which will bankrupt half of the states in the middle east. Saudi Arabia for instance will be a pretty problematic failed state.
2. The threshold of tolerance to migrants seems to have been exceeded pretty much everywhere in Europe. In the UK the EU referundum will largely be about polish immigration and current polls suggest the UK will exit the EU. The far right is rising pretty much everywhere in Europe. And the standard politically correct response of the medias/political class (if you don't want these migrants, you are a racist, end of discussion) will not do anything to contain the far right.
3. With the exception of the UK, pretty much all of Europe is in recession and has high unemployment, and therefore will not be able to absorb this immigration. To make things worse, all the technological change we foresee (AI, robotics, more automation) will only reduce the supply of low-skill jobs in favor of high-skill jobs. The exact opposite of what would be required to absorb this immigration.
The whole thing feels like a slow motion train crash, like the accumulation of public debt. It seems pretty obvious to me that one way or another it won't end well.
Re Paris attacks and migrants: Only the politics are blaming it on Syria and on migrants!
I, French, and many others, have seen through the game. Terrorists were actually French/Belgian. And French born. It's a failure with our "Egalité des Chances".
- That President Hollande triggers 3000 home bustings with no warrant is extremely racist. They did uncover arms but one should notice that they busted a lot of... countryside hunters. What a shame on police.
- That President Hollande triggers house arrests on hundreds of Muslims is extremely racist again. At best they lose their jobs, at worst those Muslims will turn back their opinion against revenge-based democracy, and we're feeding tomorrow's terrorism with new French-born-and-raised citizen.
- That Holland considers bombing a foreign country because we had some terrorist attacks is, again, using politics for another agenda. By the way, war creates new poverty, and 90% the West goes at war, they create the terrorists of tomorrow.
- If our terrorists have made a trip to Syria, that's at minimum a big failure of the Shengen borders. Shengen borders which, we were told, were stronger than just national borders, but have just let about 1.1million migrants through. What a mockery over the voters.
- France is in economic stagnation. I have lived in 4 countries, I'm not naive. We don't have the money to lead a war in Syria. With that much money we send all kids of Africa to Disneyland (Do make the calculation, we spend 32m€ on war per year).
- French citizen who became terrorists did that out of hopelessness. If anything, we need more social fabric, more social help. We also need a strict police. My cousin was sexually assaulted by someone we have the identity of, and the police isn't arresting him. Sexual assault being one of the worst crimes, it's weak to say that the police is generally lenient with crime and that's our culture. And when our police acts, they just do so in a massively racist way. Way to go. Talking about police, the worst thing to do for a Socialist president is to give free reign to far-right police during Etat d'Urgence.
President Hollande is acting the worst way against terrorism. He's not attacking the roots at all (better economy, equal chances, less debt, less war, balanced police with due diligence and powers in check, safe environment for Muslims, and teaching about equality). President Hollande is teasing the population with racism, imposing a police state on Muslims (and the rest of the population), removing juges from the police system, bombing Syria and losing money.
Between Hollande and FN (far right), I see no difference.
Which brings me to the matter: 1. There is no Socialist party that we can vote for if we're against the war and pro-equality and pro-integration; 2. Voters from the first point will turn to FN if Hollande doesn't have a better program than FN.
I accuse Hollande of failing France, by not applying a Socialist program and teasing France towards extreme-right.
The migrants are always refered to as war refugees when really only a minority are.
The migrants seem to come with the perception that they will be welcomed with open and generous arms where the European public opinion is becoming very visibly hostile to this wave of migrants. And European countries will not have the means and the will to subsidise immigrants on this scale.
The European public opinion turned against the migrants after the Paris attack, just because some of the attackers travelled through these immigration channels, but all attackers were either French or Belgium nationals, not migrants. Same thing in Cologne where it seems all the attackers where from Marroco and Algeria, not Iraq or Syria.
What I am worried about is the combination of these factors:
1. This is only the start of the migrant crisis. Migrants stopped crossing the mediteranean sea during the winter, but spring is coming, and the Russian backed offensive in Syria will lead to more war refugees. Not only that but when Bashar will likely regain territories from Isis, we will really see many Isis fighters returning home in Europe, ...or seeking asylum from the certain death if caught by Putin/Bashar (and then what do Europeans do?). And on a longer term, the African demographic explosion means millions of africans trying to make their way to Europe every year will be the new normal. Add to that the fact that our societies will increasingly reduce our reliance on oil, which will bankrupt half of the states in the middle east. Saudi Arabia for instance will be a pretty problematic failed state.
2. The threshold of tolerance to migrants seems to have been exceeded pretty much everywhere in Europe. In the UK the EU referundum will largely be about polish immigration and current polls suggest the UK will exit the EU. The far right is rising pretty much everywhere in Europe. And the standard politically correct response of the medias/political class (if you don't want these migrants, you are a racist, end of discussion) will not do anything to contain the far right.
3. With the exception of the UK, pretty much all of Europe is in recession and has high unemployment, and therefore will not be able to absorb this immigration. To make things worse, all the technological change we foresee (AI, robotics, more automation) will only reduce the supply of low-skill jobs in favor of high-skill jobs. The exact opposite of what would be required to absorb this immigration.
The whole thing feels like a slow motion train crash, like the accumulation of public debt. It seems pretty obvious to me that one way or another it won't end well.